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Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.Arctic warming is disproportionately high.There is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.There is a 66% chance that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 20 will be more than 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.This is used as a baseline because it was before the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 20 is predicted to be between 1.1☌ and 1.8☌ higher than the 1850-1900 average.

Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event.

The focus is on climate indices such as global mean near-surface temperature, Atlantic multidecadal variability, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, as well as regional indices and annual and multi-year seasonal means of near-surface temperature, mean sea-level pressure, and precipitation.

It is produced annually in May and summarizes the predicted future of the global climate over the next year and the next five years.Recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.Ībout Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.

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